Saturday, 14 June 2014

Restless Iraq and Thirsty China

Jack & Jill went up the hill
to fetch a million oil barrels,
There broke a fight,
and oil rose its price,
That first them, their indices came tumbling after.



INDIA - The biggest loser!

Currency, that India had been stabilizing for more than 4 months, plummeted to it's 4-month low in one day; due to Iraq tensions that caused Oil prices to rise. Currency that had appreciated itself against ever-so-strong US Dollar could not walk through this chaos, bullet-proof.

(Source: www.seekingaplha.com)

Highly dependent on oil imports, India saw it’s INR and Indices fall the most in over 4 months due to the escalating violence in Iraq which sent crude oil prices to their 10-month high.
Possibly the only country amongst Emerging Markets (EEMs) that felt the tremor of Iraq’s unrest was India. Possibly the only country that kept pacing towards growth was China. Let us question (and answer) - Why..

(Source: www.seekingaplha.com)

So, how is China not affected by Iraq's unrest?
How is Turkey safe from geopolitical tensions in Iraq?
How is South Africa not affected?
How is Brazil untouched? 

(Source: www.etfscreen.com)
ETF Indices as follow:
MCHI- China
EZA - South Africa
EWZ - Brazil
EIDO- Indonesia
TUR - Turkey
INP & INDY - India



CHINA - Thirst is real!

China has been on a hoarding spree for more than half a decade now. Has already bought more than 600,000 barrels a day of surplus crude from January to April, saving itself against world "instability".
By the end of last year, China had collected 141 million barrels of strategic reserve capacity, China National Petroleum Corp said in an annual report released in January.
As China's thirst for crude grows, the International Energy Agency estimates, that by 2030, it will be the world's largest oil consumer, overtaking US.

So, how is China not as affected by the Turkey tensions when it's one of the biggest oil importers in the World?
Porbably becuase most of it's oil is imported by other countries than Iraq.. Saudi Arabia being it's largest crude oil supplier; and also Oman, the United Arab Emirates, Angola, Venezuela and Russia.
ALSO
China's markets' better performance is also the result of release of better than expected Factory production data, which rose 8.8 percent in May YTY, up from 8.7 percent in April. Retail sales increased 12.5 percent and January-May fixed-asset investment growth was little changed at 17.2 percent.


OTHER EEMs:
Why did South Africa and Brazil not tumble down the hill, like India?
Because they are not as highly dependent on oil imports as India, or even China. 
Turkey has been safe and Taner Yildiz, Energy minister of Turkey, has been balancing market sentiments in his country by assuring: “Latest developments in Iraq related to energy sector do not affect Turkey’s crude oil security supply."

Look how US Natural Resources Funds saw a long-time high after oil prices rose this Friday:-

IEO - iShares Dow Jones U.S. Oil & Gas Expl & Prod
IEZ - iShares Dow Jones U.S. Oil Equip & Svcs
USL - U.S. 12 Month Oil Fund
USO - US Oil Fund ETF
Chances are the defense sector would see a price hike too, in the near future, if the war-situation gets more tensed.

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